I don’t really have a fantastic prediction, because I don’t feel like the major factors are really foreseeable at this point.
I think a big factor is what happens with Reddit and Twitter, since the Threadiverse and Mastodon are obvious alternatives.
Another is how well other alternatives, like Bluesky and Threads do.
I think that it’s hard to call those factors.
I doubt that Mastodon or the Threadiverse, at least, will die soon. I think that they’ve got enough mass that even without any major influx, they could keep going.
I don’t know about some of the other services. One ActivityPub-based system doing well doesn’t mean another will, and some have not a lot of userbase.
Agreed, there will probably be a lot more AI generated content on it by then.
If the major social media companies still exist by then, I think it will still be the same as it is now. Maybe a bit more users, but still a minority in the space.
Dead
Either:
- continuing to languish in obscurity with its rough-around-the-edges UX that fails to draw in anyone except self-sufficient computer savvy types who smugly proclaim they like it that way while impatiently tapping their feet and glancing at their wristwatches waiting for mainstream socials to collapse already, or
- wildly thriving, but dominated by an oligopoly of major breakout platforms that dominate the rest of the ecosystem, subtly altering it over the course of many small, tolerable nudges to the point that it hardly resemble what anyone who is currently here liked about it in the first place.
My money is on the former.
Mastodon will still be the biggest fediverse service. It will remain a niche player in the microblog world, as Bluesky gradually becomes the big player by stealing users from the platform formerly known as Twitter.
The rest of the federverse will (hopefully) coalesce around fewer projects. Development is massively fragmented right now. I’m very curious to see which projects flourish, and which projects die.
I do not expect the federverse to unseat large corporate social media and become home to the masses. And I’m okay with that.
I do not expect the Fediverse…
I hate to agree with this but I do. I would love if more people said fuck you to data harvesting and started denying access to everything as best they could; and decentralizing social media would go a long way in that. Unfortunately, too many people have too much faith in corporations
Either dead or a niche as it is now.
I expect it won’t be that different and will remain niche for the foreseeable future. Works for me.
Reddit 2.0
I think in five years we will just call it the Fediverse instead of giving the Zuck any claim.
Oh by Threadiverse I’m referring to Lemmy/Mbin and their co-conspirators.
Serious question, when people call it threadiverse they aren’t referring to it like that to include Threads?
I’ve never heard it to mean that
I’ve got some comments to edit
I’m talking about the “thread-oriented, community-based-discussion Reddit-alike” systems.
Lemmy. Kbin. Mbin. Piefed. Couple other projects.
That is, the Threadiverse isn’t just Lemmy, even if Lemmy is – at the moment, at any rate – the largest.
I thought it meant fediverse, including threads.
Usenet?
Discussion on Usenet got hit pretty hard by spam. One of the major benefits of Reddit, in my view, was that it was significantly less-impacted.
The Threadiverse consists of moderated communities.
I think that that is gonna have a major impact on spam, same way that it did on Reddit.
I don’t use any other Fediverse system on a regular basis, so I don’t really have a great feel for them. I don’t know how Twitter deals with spam or whether Mastodon does or can use the same approach.
It is important that Reddit had one unified group to fight against spam combined with several volunteers on the same platform. The Fediverse doesn’t have that, it is just too small to spam to a large degree.
This is a bit of a long reach, but I can see it switching to ATProto, like Bluesky. The fact that identity, hosting and moderation are all done by the same person in ActivityPub is a big cause of many issues and drama on Mastodon. I think ATProto would fix it, and give access to everyone on Bluesky as well.
Way more AI. The bots will take all the fun and not leave much for the rest of us.
I hope more governments and institutions start self hosting their own AP publishing, at least for microblogging.
I also hope we get more multiparidgm app platforms like friendica and mbin.
Loops and Peertube are super promising, especially with peered hosting to manage bandwidth hits. It’d be smart for major creators to have a delayed archive in self or group hosted instances to help with discoverability and fight risk of content loss. Canadian Civil is paving the way.
I predict there will be more integration with tipping / patreoning platforms.
I predict there will be some ATpro features like federated identity and moderation extended into AP, or a blessed version of ATpro from the W3C’s Social Web group (Bluesky is already working on transferring ownership of the protocol to IETF). Either way apps will simply migrate or find bridges and the wider fediverse will grow.
