I’d like to remind everyone that 8 years ago, the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly. There was tons of discussion after the election about how the polls could be so wrong.
I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…
If a candidate is only polling 40% to their opponents’s 60%, and you were to run the election 10 times with a different sampling of voters each time, it doesn’t mean that the candidate will lose by 60% every time. It means they’re going to win four times out of ten.
Don’t let polls lull you into either complacency or despair. The only thing polls are really good for is giving pundits something to talk about in the 24 hour news cycle. Polls don’t decide the election. Only actual votes on actual ballots that are actually submitted in time decide the election.
And this messaging is a large part of what led to low democrat turnout when Hillary was running for office. Her early campaign had basically been “lol don’t worry about this, he’s an idiot who doesn’t gave a chance of winning.” It wasn’t until about a month before the actual election that someone in her campaign team realized this would lull voters into a false sense of security. Suddenly, their entire tone changed from “he has no chance of winning” to “oh for fucks sake please go vote”. But it was too little, too late. Democrat voters stayed home, and handed the win to Trump.
Well this time Harris has been telling everyone that Trump is trying to end democracy from the beginning
I count cards in blackjack, and let me tell ya, when your winning chance is 52% that means you’re lose chance is 48% and 48% to lose feels like 90%.
True story: half the country doesn’t even know she’s in yet.
Had to tell 3 peeps at dinner yesterday what’s up.
I’m not alone.I get how there are people who don’t follow politics, but man… how do you avoid news like this?
I mean, technically, she’s not in until the convention… but you would think it would be common knowledge unless you’re a recluse or a child who doesn’t know most people by name.
Someone more famous than I (Meryl Streep?) once suggested that upon graduation, one should be mandated to drive a taxi for a year, just to see what it’s “really like” out there.
You’ll have to take my word for it, she’s so right.People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…
I just worked customer service for a decade. After awile you just take it in stride when an adult is functionally illiterate. Leaving aside the people who think Democrat and Republican have to do with the dictionary definitions of Democracy and Republic and nothing else.
People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…
…yet they find that one thread on Nextdoor where one person claimed that it happened in their child’s classroom and a lot of self-righteous pearl clutching. Therefore, that must be the truth.
I honestly wish I could look away and just be blissfully ignorant. Fuck I’m not even American.
Tell me about it. It’s practically impossible to avoid american news and it’s fucking infuriating. I’m so sick of hearing about trump and biden or democrats and republicans etc yet it’s pretty much impossible to avoid unless you dont use social media at all. I get that a huge chunk of the English speaking internet is made up of Americans but holy fuck shut the fuck up, as a Canadian I’m fucking sick of their brain dead sports team politics, especially cause that bullshit is infecting Canada now. We even have Canadian trumpers ffs.
Fuck you and your dumbass politics america, hurry up and implode already so I can at least be entertained instead of annoyed.
To anyone thats gonna reply and tell me how I should care because it’s gonna affect me blah blah blah I dont fucking care. Not even gonna read any replies this comment gets I just wanted to vent. So dont waste your time replying.
Michigan fucking loves her. Damn.
also, Trump did nothing for them
What state could claim he did something for them? That this once again is a close race constantly boggled my mind.
Ask Wisconsin how that Foxconn contract he helped secure for them turned out.
(For those not familiar, and disinclined to investigate further, the answer is “Not great.”)
I am one of the many Wisconsin expats that has abandoned the state until it gets its shit back together. The thing you have to understand about the Wisconsin electorate, is that, in the aggregate, it’s fucking dumb, mean, entitled, and will never reconsider its beliefs. The tea party movement really thoroughly fucked the state for the foreseeable future.
That lines up pretty well with my experience. I lived in Wisconsin for about 2-1/2 years. It’s not a state that has nothing going for it. The structure is absolutely there for it to be a successful and enjoyable place that residents could have right to be proud of. With what I encountered though the phrase Wississippi was very apt. And yeah, it’s because too many people there choose for it to be that way.
WI used to be heavily pro-labor, relatively progressive, and on a positive track, although it certainly was struggling to come to terms with its historical blemishes that persisted into deep systemic issues (racism and segregation have always been a massive issue in the state, but have only worsened in the last couple decades). When the right overtook almost the entirety of governor for a long stretch, it utterly broke the state though. The upside is that WI and MN were functionally identical until one went hard right and the other soft left and the result makes a wonderful case study for how vapid and destructive the entirety of the US right and Republicans are.
