cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/15948872
Joe Biden is correct that violent crime is near a 50-year low
One very interesting aspect of this is that most people do notice if the crime rate is lower in their area, but are still likely to complain that the crime rate is too high generally, even if they don’t see that in their own local community.
I attribute this directly to 24-hour cable news, which tries to grab our attention by telling us how bad everything is. I wonder if any study has tried to correlate the public’s perception of crime to where they get their news.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/
While perceptions of rising crime at the national level are common, fewer Americans believe crime is up in their own communities. In every Gallup crime survey since the 1990s, Americans have been much less likely to say crime is up in their area than to say the same about crime nationally.
Same exact thing is happening with the economy:
The vast majority of those surveyed — 68% — said it was becoming harder for the average person to get ahead, while nearly half of respondents said their own finances were moving in the right direction.
We are cripplingly addicted to myopic sensationalism, and the death of local news means that as information consumers we’re increasingly hypnotized by national news corporations who have no roots or stake in local communities and who thrive on rage bait. Put simply, there’s no localized and tempered source of information that can balance out the neverending national panic.
Violent crime isn’t all crime though. If someone sees discarded needles every day on the street, they aren’t that greatful when you say “at least you weren’t mugged.”
If you can’t leave packages at your front door, you don’t care as much that there was only 1 drive by shooting in the area.
You won’t get stabbed on the subway, but you will get a scam call and 3 scam texts on your ride.
Violent crime isn’t the only crime that results in violence either.
Road deaths and injuries are way up and prosecution for killing someone with a car is constantly excused and dismissed even as people get more negligent (screen use) and risky behind the wheel.
“You risk your lives every day for the safety of the people you don’t even know. That’s why each of you, each and every one of you, is a hero. It’s no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low.”
I find the actual quote kind of problematic on multiple levels. ACAB aside, not every cop is a good guy let alone a hero.
And he is crediting police with a record 50-year low? I don’t buy that.
But yes, the perception that Republicans are “tough on crime” needs to go away cause their fear mongering has nothing to do with actual crime prevention.
it’s also just wrong.
It’s the lead folks. Biden should be crediting the EPA.
Something about causality and correlation…
Correlation doesn’t imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing ‘look over there’.
Again, it’s not been shown to be a significant factor in the drop in crime in the 20th century. There’s more explanation needed than just lead.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046222000667?via%3Dihub
The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis
Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime, pooling 542 estimates from 24 studies. The effect of lead is overstated in the literature due to publication bias. Our main estimates of the mean effect sizes are a partial correlation of 0.16, and an elasticity of 0.09. Our estimates suggest the abatement of lead pollution may be responsible for 7–28% of the fall in homicide in the US. Given the historically higher urban lead levels, reduced lead pollution accounted for 6–20% of the convergence in US urban and rural crime rates. Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century. Additional explanations are needed.
Systematic reviews / meta-analysis
The first meta-analysis of the lead-crime hypothesis was published in 2022. “The Lead-Crime Hypothesis: A Meta-Analysis”, authored by Anthony Higney, Nick Hanley, and Mirko Moro consolidates findings of 24 studies on the subject. It found that there is substantial evidence linking lead exposure to a heightened risk of criminal behavior, particularly violent crimes. This aligns with earlier research suggesting lead exposure may foster impulsive and aggressive tendencies, potential precursors to violent offenses. The study concluded that, while a correlation between declining lead pollution and declining criminality is supported by research, it is likely not a significant factor in reduced crime rates, and that the link is generally overstated in lead-crime literature.
The study’s implications point towards the potential benefits of reducing lead exposure to decrease crime rates. Such reductions could be achieved through initiatives like removing lead from products like gasoline and paint, water pipes and enhancing lead abatement measures in schools and residences.
Thanks for that.
So, you say biden is killing the small arms industry?
And he is crediting police with a record 50-year low? I don’t buy that.
Neither should you - if it’s safe for you to walk the streets the pig is the last people on the planet you should thank.
That doesn’t really matter when the media knows that the more it reports on lurid crime, the more people pay attention, meaning the more they can charge for advertising.
The consumer of commercial news is not the customer, they’re the product.
But immigrants… So you’re clearly wrong. You have to be! Immigrants!!!
/s
A right winger I know looked at the stats from the FBI, and his only takeaway was “Yeah, but crime is up since 2014. Media just making a fake narrative that only works on leftists.”
Coworkers are fun.
…and if we could get the Fascist Pig Party (aka “”“Republicans”“”) the hell out of our government, we could have some sane gun control laws that would maybe, just maybe, lower the number of mass shootings as well.
Violence is the US primary export
